Mbeki & Leon - who's after them?

The Sunday Times and City Press are both reporting on the succession plans for leaders of the two major political parties within South Africa.

The City Press is reporting that the ANC Gauteng leadership is requesting that Mbeki take the debate about his successor to the membership rather then hold it behind closed doors whilst the Sunday Times reports that the future of Leon as leader of the DA is under threat, not this year but certainly by 2006.

Dealing with the ANC issue first. The ANC has always been very secretive and controlling about leadership succession and the primary reason is that they are a centralist party and do not want their dirty laundry aired in public (for example as happens during the primary race in the US). The problem is that if I want person X to succeed Mbeki one route is to promote my candidate, but the other route is to discredit the other candidate and this can get very messy. Secondly the ANC leadership has always pretty much decided amongst themselves who would go where and then get the party members to rubber-stamp these decisions.

The problem is the secretiveness of the process and whilst the election for a new ANC leader (and eventual president of SA) is still some three years away the ANC should certainly take the debate down to its grass root members. The result will be some mud slinging but ultimately it will give better creditability to the new leader and ensure that the masses feel that they were part of the process. In other words bottom up rather then top down – that’s what democracy is supposed to be about.

The battle for the leadership of the ANC only happens in 2007, but now is as good a time as any to start the debate and get it out into the open.

The Sunday Times story on the DA and Leon is more interesting with deputy DA chairman Helen Zille being reported as one of the possible replacement candidates (albeit she is reported to have turned this down). The reality is that under Leon the DA seems to have peaked for now and the failed coalition for change with the IFP coupled with his support of the death penalty adds further nails to his coffin.

The DA has a leadership vote in November and Leon is expected to be re-elected un-apposed, but further down the line it looks like Leon’s time is up. The question here is who? Ideally a credible black leader (but not DA chairman Joe Seremane as he has done little or nothing) but there doesn’t seem to be any serious candidates (apart from Ms Zille who it is suggested would be a fill-in leader!). So for now Leon is safe, but some 2006 I would think that the DA would be seriously looking for a new leader.

The bottom line is that it is going to be an interesting couple of years in local politics as the two major parties both try and work out their respective (but vastly different) leadership issues.

Comments

[Garth]

Just hope Ms Dlamini-Zuma is not as powerful as some seem to suggest?

[zaBlogger]

DA-mal, I hink you are correct on Manuel winning two provinces if my memory is correct. Certainly he has huge support, but people who know him say he doesn't much like the politics - but then would anybody turn down the chance to be president? You even get your own jet...

[DA mal]

Vaz, we should be ancologists, not kremlinologists, ne?

Zuma is very popular. And Manuel beat out both Zuma and Mbeki in at least one provincial nomination list before the general election (I think it was the Western Cape, but I could be imagining things). But this means nothing.

[zaBlogger]

Nick, agreed and my money is definately on Dlamini-Zuma.

[Vaz Lube]

"very secretive and controlling about leadership succession"?

Looks like a new business of ANC Kremlinology is starting up.

Shall we become Kremlinologists?

[Nick]

With regard to the succession issue in the ANC, surely the trial of Schabir Shaik is going to play quite an important role? Zuma has ducked allegations for so long, but can he continue? I hope that if Zuma comes out dirty, Mbeki will use it to distance himself from his VP and start punting Dlamini-Zuma further. As Mbeki places such a strong emphasis on foreign (African) relations, I don't think it is coincidental that he allocated such a crucial cabinet portfolio to Dlamini-Zuma. We'll have to watch her progress closely.

[DA mal]

In re fill-in leader: thanks zaBlogger, I read the SunTimes ref to fill-in leader; merely an interesting matter of tactics.

In re colour/gender of Leader: don't attribute the ANC's idea of non-racialism to the DA. The DA doesn't have the same central control mechanisms that the ANC uses, so we would not be able to stop another white male Leader being elected if this were to happen.

In re liberalism: hoary old topic, surely? I know what I mean by liberalism.

[zaBlogger]

DA Mal, the filler comment was from a reading of the Sunday Times article. I would suspect it's because she's the wrong colour? More from DA-mal here

Laurence, a liberal party leader supporting the death penalty? An not the final nail, but one of the final nails. Maybe the DA isn't a liberal party? I've never fully understood these terms ascribed to political thinking.

[DA mal]

I'm interested in your comment on Zille as 'fill-in leader', zaBlogger. More speculation over on DA mal shortly...

[Laurence Caromba]

Maybe I'm missing something here, but how has Leon's support for the death penalty been "the final nail in his coffin"?